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 BMI - MacD Magic Monster

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mary



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PostSubject: BMI - MacD Magic Monster   Sat May 28, 2011 1:47 pm

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BMI - MacD Magic Monster

Everybody knows what MacD is right?

But have you ever thought about what the zero line is?
Once you KNOW what the zero line actually is, then MacD takes on a whole new meaning and becomes a powerful indicator.

Have you ever wondered why the MacD is showing Up, Moving from well
below the zero line upwards towards the zero line but still the price is
dropping?

Some say it is divergence and it indicates ... blah blah blah.

But what this actually means is, lets find a way of saying something
that sounds valid because surely it WILL go up since MacD shows up...?


As you can see in this picture, The price is heading south while MacD
(the standard one in the indicators tab just slightly better colour
settings) set to 12,26,9 . Also the zero Line is a thick blue line.




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Now the following picture Has some EMA's on it.
EMA 47 (12+26+9)
EMA 14 (26-12)
EMA 2 (12-9)/2



Not an exact replica of the MacD, but very close no?
Just to fully embed this concept in your mind, the next pic has the same value EMA's in a separate window.

So Now we have a slanted MacD that doesn't give the false impression of
moving up, when the zero line is not actually a horizontal line but is
an EMA.
Yet since we see it as a straight line in the MacD, our natural tendency
is to perceive that anything that is below it that moves up is actually
moving up.







By zooming out to max it becomes very simple to fully perceive the right way of what MacD shows us.
The orange line in the MacD appears below as a non contradictory
downward trend. The vertical white lines are the crossover points on the
MacD and also on the EMA version of the same Macd. So by seeing the
trend, one need not panic and close the short trade just because the
MacD is heading north. It can simply be seen that each touch of the
'zero' line is still lower than the previous touch.





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mary



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PostSubject: Re: BMI - MacD Magic Monster   Sat May 28, 2011 1:47 pm

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Now we get to an interesting MacD that shows us even more.

It is a long term MacD, and it took me almost 2 years of experimentation to find the right numbers (EMA's actually).

75,365,60 - A pretty strange MacD, yes?



Here is the MacD (75,365,60)
As well as the EMA's
EMA 500 (75+365+60)
EMA 290 (365-75)
EMA 8 (75-60)/2 (rounded up)







And here on the Weekly chart are the two together.

That is 8800 pips (as you will see in the next pic is actually conservative) with basically zero drawdown over ten years.

That is also excluding the medium term trades that happen while the long
term trade grows and grows. Rollover fee's I hear you thinking? There
are several brokers that offer their services with zero swap fee's.

Risk Reward ratio? As I will show you, the risk is almost zero, while the reward. Well let us say it is fairly reasonable.



1. The price drops to test EMA 290, but fails to break through. Prior to
that it was testing to break above EMA 500 also failing to break
through.
Notice that EMA 47 (the red one) fails to turn South.

Without counting the 4500 pip in the one year from the bar that almost
touches EMA 290 after the two that tested to the LowerHigh where number 2
is, we get our first signal that a reversal is in the offer.

2. Our second signal comes from the turning of the EMA 47.

3. Our entry point and third signal that reversal has happened is the testing to break above EMA 47 that fails.

The exit point of the first short is where she breaks above EMA 47. This is also the entry for the long position.



4. There is one point halfway up the long trade where EMA 47 turns South
but they are 3 short scallops that end with a higher low. If the Higher
low were to have been a Lower Low, it would have broken below EMA 290
which would be our exit signal. Also EMA 290 had not turned South. The
gap between EMA 47 was still hugging EMA 290.

If however at that time we were to decide to close the tradeas soon as
we saw EMA turn South, it was at 2100 Pips a few weeks after EMA 290
turned South, and we would open a new trade on first test and bounceback
off EMA 600.



5. The gap here between the High at 5, and EMA 500 is now at 5000 Pips.
It is getting homesick. Directly below 5. is the first Lower Low since
the 4. testing for southbound territory. Imediately after 5, EMA 290
starts to turn.
Once the price breaks below EMA 47 a tries to break back above and fails is a good exit point.

After this trade is finished, the break below EMA 500 is the entry for the next short.

This excludes the many bounces off the EMA 500, EMA 290 ans EMA 47
Weekly 'scalps' of around 1500 to 300 pips each that are evident and
give clear signals after failing to break the various resistance points.

Then phase two of the system is to do the same on the daily chart, the H4, the H1 all the way down to the M15.

These two "MacD's" (which actually ARE MacD's but aren't since they are EMA's are true magic EMA's.

If you think I am joking, check em out.
I am attaching the indicators for them, and you will see that the
separate window EMA's have 6 EMA's in them using 3 for background and
three for colour. Doing it this way leaves the two 'MacD's' floating, so
the touch/test points should only be done on the chart itself. OR you
can set up both MacD's in ONE separate window indicator.

You work out the details.
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mary



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PostSubject: Re: BMI - MacD Magic Monster   Sat May 28, 2011 1:49 pm

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There is no magic about MACD. It is simply subtraction of the two moving averages and then smothing it.

For example MACD 12,26,9 means we see the difference of EMA 12 and EMA
26 (white histogram - how far is EMA 12 from EMA 26), the second line is
9 period MA of that difference, also called as signal line (red line in
MACD indicator window).

So, when MACD crosses zero line, it is exacltly the same thing as EMA 12 and EMA 26 crossover.

When you see price slowly dropping and MACD shows "uptrend" it means
nothing else than the two EMAs are getting closer to each other as the
EMAs difference is getting smaller.

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mary



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PostSubject: Re: BMI - MacD Magic Monster   Sat May 28, 2011 1:49 pm

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his last signal has been a beauty. Good
for about 150 pips so far and it looks like it's still going some more.
The signal prior to this one was no slouch either. Yup, it is all about
perspective .












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